Anthropic just dropped a research paper called “Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence“. One of the graphics from the report is all over my Twitter again, so sharing it here, like in previous occasions: [1] [2].
The TL;DR is that AI is far from reaching its theoretical capability. Their new metric, “observed exposure,” combines what LLMs could theoretically do with what people are actually using Claude for in professional settings. The gap is massive. For example, Computer & Math occupations could theoretically have 94% of their tasks handled by AI, but actual coverage sits at just 33%. Computer programmers top the list at 75% coverage, followed by customer service reps and data entry workers. Meanwhile, 30% of the workforce has essentially zero exposure.
If you work in software, you already feel how fast everything is moving, but for the vast majority of the labor market, the AI wave hasn’t really arrived yet. We’re at the very start. Here’s where it gets interesting for anyone trying to understand where this is heading. Despite all the noise about AI taking jobs, the researchers found no meaningful increase in unemployment for workers in the most exposed occupations since ChatGPT launched. None. But there is one early signal worth watching: hiring of young workers (ages 22-25) into exposed occupations appears to have slowed by about 14% — suggesting companies may be quietly absorbing AI into roles rather than hiring new people to fill them.
The workers most exposed tend to be older, more educated, higher-paid, and more likely to be female. It’s a reminder that this isn’t just disrupting entry-level work; it’s reshaping white-collar professions from the inside. The full impact is still ahead of us, and the researchers plan to keep updating this framework as the data evolves. Think about what the internet looked like when only a fraction of its potential had been realized. That’s where AI and the labor market are right now.
Here’s also a very interesting thought experiment: someone has created a mockup of how the same graphic would have looked 200 years ago:
For our ancestors, the outer ring would be almost unrecognizable.
“Computer & math” was nonsensical.
Medicine and law were tiny and barely professionalized.
The first photo was just about to be taken, so it would have been unfathomable to have a single blockbuster gross more than the entire gross national product of that period.
“Office & admin” barely existed as a concept; counting-houses employ a tiny literate class.Agriculture alone consumed maybe 70-80% of the labor force in the US.
There was a thick band of artisanal trades that don’t map onto any single modern category: coopering, blacksmithing, weaving, tanning, milling.
Clergy was a major professional category and Maritime labor was its own significant sector.
Source: https://x.com/mbrendan1/status/2029731174034083929